Tighter supplies to create tailwind for copper prices

Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange on Friday headed towards four-month highs of $8,640 a metric ton seen on December 1, partly due to Anglo American lowering its production guidance.

The London-listed miner said output next year would amount to 730,000-790,000 metric tons, down 20% from a previous estimate, while for 2025 it expects to produce 690,000 to 750,000 tons, down 18% from its previous estimate.

Anglo is putting one of the processing plants at its Los Bronces operation in Chile on care and maintenance and plans for its Quellaveco facility in Peru have “been adjusted” to safely navigate a geotechnical fault line.

“(Anglo’s) newly issued guidance for 2026 was also well below our numbers,” said Macquarie analyst Alice Fox.

“Vale announced new guidance this week that was below our expectations as well, but not to the same scale …the outlook for prices is more bullish if demand holds up.”

Brazil’s Vale estimated its copper production at 320,000 to 355,000 tons in 2024 versus 325,000 tons this year.

Macquarie now expects copper market surpluses of 100,000 and 287,000 tons for 2024 and 2025 respectively, down from previous forecasts of 203,000 and 369,000 tons.

Global copper production next year and in 2025 is expected to be around 27 million tons.

Disruptions at First Quantum’s Cobre mine in Panama, accounting for 1% of global mined supply last year, are also on the watchlist. Its future is uncertain due to the country’s top court declaring as unconstitutional First Quantum’s contract to own and operate the mine.

Even before Anglo’s announcement, Bank of America analyst Michael Widmer had removed Cobre Panama from his estimate of copper supplies for next year and switched his forecast from a small surplus to a deficit.

“To us, a restart looks unlikely before the May 2024 general elections in Panama at the earliest, i.e. once a new administration is established with which First Quantum may begin negotiating a contract,” Widmer said.

“While elections could bring change, we now assume a potential restart of Cobre Panama in the fourth quarter of next year.”