Cochilco cuts 2023 copper price forecast to $3.85/lb

“The copper price forecast adjustment for this year is due to several factors, one of which is uncertainty regarding China’s economic growth,” Cochilco said in a statement.

“Additionally, there is the economic contraction affecting the European zone and doubts about the economic expansion in the United States.”

The agency had previously set a forecast of $3.90 in May. For 2024, Cochilco adjusted its previous forecast of $3.80 to $3.75.

It also estimates that the global market will close with a copper surplus of around 130,000 metric tons this year.

Chile’s copper mine production will reach 5.4 million tons this year according to Cochilco, which represents a year-on-year increase of 1%. It predicts an increase of 4.3% to 5.6 million tons in 2024.

One of the factors favoring production is Teck’s Quebrada Blanca Phase 2’s production entering the market.