Gold price gains as weak US services data boosts Fed rate cut wagers

The US service sector came close to stagnating at the end of 2023 as the employment measure showed the biggest contraction in more than three years. Hiring in the service sector accounts for the lion’s share of US economy, so a slowdown could be a threat to growth and may lead to faster rate cuts by the Fed.

Treasury yields and the greenback plunged after the latest report from the Institute for Supply Management, erasing gains from robust payrolls data earlier Friday. That boosted bullion by as much as 1%, a U-turn from a 0.9% loss earlier. Swap traders boosted bets for a rate cut by March.

Gold rose 0.4% to $2,051.13 an ounce as of 11:42 a.m. in New York.

The employment print “is convincing the market that jobs will weaken. This has driven gold higher to nearly $2,060,” said Bart Melek, global head of commodity strategy at TD Securities. “I suspect gold traders are pricing a more aggressive Fed than the Fed wants to be” in terms of monetary easing this year.

Bullion typically has an inverted relationship with rates — the lower the rates, the higher gold climbs. The precious metal has held above $2,000 since mid-December despite policymakers pushing back against expectations for near-term, aggressive monetary easing and data pointing to a robust US economy.

Earlier Friday, data showed nonfarm payrolls rose 216,000 in December, above the median economist estimate, while wages climbed more than expected. The figures caused yields and the greenback to advance, sending gold lower.