According to Mining News Pro -Overseas coal shipments from Indonesia, one of the world`s largest exporters of thermal coal, rose by 12.24% to 281.03 MnT in January to August this year, from 250.4 MnT in the same period last year, data from the country`s central bank, Bank Indonesia shows.
But August`s exports dropped 15.2% to 32.68 MnT , from 38.54 MnT in July and it also fell 0.6% from 32.88 MnT in August 2017, according to the data.
Bank Indonesia did not give further explanations for the data.
However, PT Adaro Energy, in a 3rd Quarter activity report, noted that higher use of hydro power plants and other renewable generation, weakening RMB against the US dollar and import control policies affected China`s import demand for sub-bituminous coal and off-spec high ash Newcastle coal.
More than 60% of Indonesia`s coal exports is of sub-bituminous coal. Slowing China`s demand also put pressure on sub-bituminous coal.
The softening China`s appetite for coal import also caused a larger disconnection in the thermal coal market between the prices of lower CV sub-bituminous coal and the globalCoal Newcastle benchmark coal in 3Q18, Adaro Energy noted in the report. The subdued coal import demand from China causing the decoupling between China`s domestic coal and import prices.
On the supply side, Adaro Energy said higher coal supply from Indonesia in 3Q18 due to the dry weather increases supply of sub-bituminous coal in the seaborne market.
As for the high calorific- coal, the seaborne market saw a supply tightness in the 3Q as the main producer, Australia, was faced with weather-related issues which affected production activities and infrastructure availability, according to the report.
“At the same time, demand for high energy coal from Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan was higher than expected. In particular, demand from Germany and Spain increased as gas prices were very high, making coal more beneficial for power utilities,” the report noted.
Those factors have boosted the prices of 6000 NAR coal prices in the seaborne market in 3Q18, including globalCoal Newcastle (GCN), to average at a USD 117.59/MT, Adaro said in the report.
In India, strong thermal coal import continued in the quarter as power plants in the country faced a shortage despite efforts from domestic coal producers to fill the gap. Official data shows in Q3 Y-o-Y nuclear power grew by 9%, hydro by 15%, coal by 2.9%, while gas and lignite, which is Indian domestic lower rank coal dropped 2.5% respectively. India`s coal imports increased by approximately 12% Y-o-Y in 9M18, Adaro noted.
Southeast Asia continued its healthy growth of imports in the quarter with Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam took more than 90%.
Vietnam had the largest import growth of 31% Y-o-Y in 3Q18. Malaysia remained the leader in nominal term with Y-o-Y import growth of 29% to approximately 8.4 MnT, the majority of which was sourced from Indonesia.
