- Write by:
-
Saturday, September 19, 2020 - 11:04:17 AM
-
731 Visit
-
Print
Mining News Pro - Fitch Solutions is revising down its thermal coal price forecast for 2020 to $55/tonne from $65/tonne as demand for Newcastle coal is set to remain weak while supply is ample, the market analyst said in its latest report.
Prices weakened further due to a severe drop in global thermal coal energy demand amid covid-19 lockdowns in Q220 extending into Q320, Fitch reports. Newcastle thermal coal (6,000kcal/kg, FOB) prices are currently hovering around $48/tonne, a level last seen only in 2016.
So far, prices have averaged $58/tonne in the year to date, and Fitch sees more weakening in the coming months from current levels to reach its final average forecast for the year.
Moving into 2021, Fitch says there should be some strengthening in prices as the global economy and thus demand starts to gear up, and puts its forecast at $58/tonne for the year.
However, the analyst notes that there will be no recovery to price levels seen in 2017-2019 as a rebound in demand back to the extent seen during those years is unlikely.
No rebound to 2019 highs
On the demand side, substantial downside pressure to Newcastle coal prices in 2020-2021 compared with 2019 will come from Japan and South Korea, the two largest importers after China (together making up 50% of all Australian thermal coal exports in 2019), Fitch says, due to a severe drop in economic activity as a result of the covid-19 pandemic and a slow recovery in 2020-2021.
Fitch holds its view that the outlook for Newcastle coal prices will remain bleak in 2020-2021 and beyond due to ample supplies and waning demand from main importing nations.
The global coal deficit will ease in 2020, Fitch says, to 519mnt compared with 592mnt in 2019.
Short Link:
https://www.miningnews.ir/En/News/601380
China’s state planner on Friday finalized a rule to set up a domestic coal production reserve system by 2027, aimed at ...
The world’s coal-fired power capacity grew 2% last year, its highest annual increase since 2016, driven by new builds in ...
Peabody Energy Corp. shares sunk to the lowest in seven months after the biggest US coal miner warned that first-quarter ...
Polish government is abandoning plans to separate coal-fired power plants into a special company and is considering ...
Rio Tinto said on Wednesday it is teaming up with a global venture studio and start-up investor to back the development ...
BMO Bank quietly dropped its policy restricting lending to the coal industry in late 2023, helping it avoid being ...
Researchers at the University of Edinburgh discovered that bacteria found in areas polluted by acid mine drainage had ...
BMO Bank quietly dropped its policy restricting lending to the coal industry in late 2023, helping it avoid being ...
Australian space exploration company Fleet Space Technologies has successfully deployed its next-generation Centauri-6 ...
No comments have been posted yet ...