Gold price rally of 2020 crushes analyst forecasts

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During the past calendar year, gold prices traded at an average of $1,769.59/oz, well exceeding what most analysts were forecasting in mid-January.

According to the London Bullion Market Association’s (LBMA) annual precious metals forecast competition, analysts were forecasting the gold price to be $1,558.8/oz on average, an increase of 12% from the average price in 2019, but still short of the actual average price by over $200/oz.

Therefore, only the most bullish analysts came close to the actual figures, with Sharps Pixley’s Ross Norman taking home the first place prize with his forecast of $1,755/oz, just $14 shy of the actual price.

Taking second place was Rene Hochreiter (Noah Capital Markets/Sieberana Research Pty Ltd) with his forecast of $1,670/oz, followed in third place by Frederic Panizzutti (MKS PAMP GROUP) with his forecast of $1,636/oz.

All three analysts secured first place finishes in the 2019 survey, which saw participants under-predict gold prices by about $80.

In other precious metals, Ross Norman also snatched first place in the silver category with his forecast of $19.25/oz, close to the actual price of $20.55/oz in 2020. This was Norman’s ninth first-place finish since the survey began.

Kieran Clancy of Capital Economics took first place in platinum with his forecast of $880, which was less than $3 from the actual average.

Lastly, Bank of China’s Zhenzing Wang won the first prize in palladium by virtue of his low/high ranges of $1,610-$2,500, which were closest to the actual low/high range of $1,557-$2,781.

The four winners would each receive a 1 oz gold bar donated by MKS PAMP.