Oil and gold brace for volatility as voting wraps up across US

Oil in New York rose more than 2% at the open, while spot gold edged higher. The US dollar fell as polling stations started to close. Market uncertainty may lead to heightened volatility over the next few hours as traders react to headlines and early clues of a possible Donald Trump or Joe Biden victory. While Trump has been trailing Biden in polls this year, the surprise 2016 election result is a reminder that early indications aren’t always accurate.

Oil has been whipsawed this year as millions went into lockdown and factories shuttered, crimping demand for fuels from gasoline to diesel. Concerns over a pile-up of crude at storage hubs prompted a sell-off that saw prices fall to minus $40 a barrel in April. While an output deal by Opec+ subsequently tightened supplies, a second wave of the virus and rising Libyan production is now threatening to derail the group’s planned easing of curbs from January.

The stakes have never been higher in a presidential election as whoever wins will have the monumental task of leading the US in its fight against a virus that’s claimed more than 230 000 lives in the country and decimated the economy. On a global scale, the next president will also play an integral role in shaping domestic as well as international efforts against climate change, the use of fossil fuels and the pace of energy transition.

While a decisive win for Trump or Biden would offer certainty for the country, oil traders would have to weigh how their policies would tip the balance on prices.

“No matter who wins, we’re not going to see an overnight change in policy,” said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates in Houston. “From that standpoint, it would take some time for the oil market to reflect on what those new policies would be and their impact.”

During his presidency, Trump took a hard-line stance against major oil producers Iran and Venezuela by means of crippling sanctions, tightening global oil supplies. The self-described deal-maker said he played a key role in brokering a historic oil-curb agreement between Opec and Russia that stemmed a price war between Saudi Arabia and other leading producers.

Trump also drove an escalation of trade tensions with China that prompted a rerouting of global commodity trade flows. And his support for American shale producers helped the nation’s output rise to a record, adding more supplies to the global pool.

A decisive victory by Biden could pave the way for the roll-out of more fiscal stimulus that could lift equity and commodity markets in the near term, while promises of stricter regulation of shale drillers could rein in output.

A Biden win could also signal a new detente with Iran, which would unleash millions of barrels a day in crude exports, and his support of accelerating the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy has long-term implications on demand in the world’s top oil consumer.

More murky for oil would be a scenario in which neither candidate has a clear path to victory, as investors would likely seek safe havens like gold while they awaited what could be a long and divisive battle.

A marginal win by Biden in which Republicans retain control of the Senate may also unsettle investors, as they would be reminded of the divisions that have stalled promised fiscal stimulus in recent weeks.