Aluminum and Copper

Copper demand continues to grow steadily

Copper demand continues to grow steadily
Mining News Pro - ICSG calculations show that copper production will grow by 2% this year and will grow by 1.2% for 2019.
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According to Mining News Pro -The International Study Group on Copper (ICSG), at a meeting in Lisbon, Portugal, during the first and second of October, with industry advisers and representatives from major producing countries and copper importing countries, in order to examine the key factors affecting the global market for this product, expressed its views on The world market is balanced by the refined copper market.


The International Census Bureau used China`s apparent demand computing calculations to improve global market equilibrium. The apparent demand for copper in China is reported only on the basis of data and changes in the untapped reserves are not considered. Of course, this may be very influential in periods of rising or decreasing reserves, and changing the global balance of supply and demand .


ICSG calculations show that copper mineral production will grow by 2% this year and will grow by 2.1% for 2019. However, last year, mineral production dropped by 5.1% due to production lags. Nonetheless, this year, production is expected to increase by 2 percent, with the recovery of production to normal conditions in Chile and Indonesia, along with re-launching capacities in Zambia and Congo, which were temporarily shut down. Although the production gap was not significant this year, and almost all labor negotiations ended, production losses from some Canadian mines and operating production problems in the countries of China, Peru and the United States have a negative impact on the growth of mineral production. Production from some of the mining projects that began between 2015 and 2016 is expected to be lower than expected. Thus, the ICSG reduced the amount of copper production growth to 0.2% this year, which was projected to be 2.9% in April. It also expects that the production of copper in 2019 will only grow about 1.2 percent, influenced by a sharp decline in production in Indonesia.


The company estimates a 7.4% increase for the refined copper market for 2018 and 2019. While the company predicted about 4% of its refined copper production for the current year in its April report, production stops in some melting units, especially in Australia, India and the Philippines, along with less than production Waiting on some melting units in Canada, Chile, and the United States led to a decline in the forecast of refined copper production growth. The accelerated production of refined copper in 2019 has slowed down due to restrictions on access to concentrate, with growth expected to be limited to 7.2% this year. The ICSG expects China, and subsequently Congo, to become the world`s largest refined copper producer in 2018 and 2019.

The International Study Group for Coke expects the apparent consumption of refined copper to be 2.1% this year and to increase by 2.6% in 2019. Given that metal copper is indispensable for the economic growth of countries, especially modern societies, copper demand is expected to continue to grow steadily. Meanwhile, the development of infrastructure in countries such as China and India, as well as the global downturn in clean energy use, will stimulate demand for copper. While the ICSG predicted a slight decrease in apparent consumption growth for this year`s refined copper this year, the forecast for consumption growth remained unchanged in 2019. The institute predicted that demand for refined copper for China would be 3.2 percent year-over-year, which is expected to decrease slightly in 2019. Also, for the world outside of China, the apparent consumption of refined copper this year is one percent and for 2019 it is about 2.5 percent more than the same period last year.


Given the predictions of refined copper supply and demand, the International Study Group is predicting a supply deficit of 90 and 65 thousand tons for 2018 and 2019, respectively.


The table below shows the modified ICSG forecast for copper and refined copper production in 2019, as well as consumption in different countries.


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