There are
clear signs that the strong decline in turnover we experienced over the
past years has bottomed out and that the sector can now look forward to
an upswing once again,” says Dr Michael Schulte Strathaus, Chairman of the VDMA Mining Association. He expects that turnover will increase by 8% for the whole year 2018.
Foreign
business is the key reason behind the positive development. The expected
increase in turnover is almost completely generated by business outside
Europe. According to VDMA figures, exports to China increased by 55% in
the first six months, while exports to Russia rose by 54%. In addition,
business with Canada, parts of South America and Australia is going
well. Exports to Canada in the first six months of 2018 were almost on
par with the export figures of the entire previous year (EUR 26 million
compared to EUR 29 million). One half of the 45% increase
in South America can be attributed to exports to Argentina (EUR 14
million), while mining equipment at a value of EUR 23.5 million was
delivered to Australia.
In contrast,
business in Europe is declining. Compared to the same period of the
previous year, exports to EU-28 countries declined by approximately 40%
in the first half of 2018. “This decline can be attributed to last
year’s investments in major infrastructure projects, which had an
influence on the previous year’s figures,” says Klaus Stöckmann, VDMA
Mining. Business with the rest of Europe fared much better, with export
figures increasing by nearly 7%. Exports to the USA declined slightly (- 4%).
Domestic
business is also experiencing a downturn, with turnover in the first six
months dropping by 35% compared to the same period of the previous
year. VDMA Mining assumes that this decline can be attributed to the
phasing out of coal mining and particularly the uncertainties concerning
lignite.
Capacity expansions are expected neither in the coal sector, nor in the
potash and salt industry. The association expects similar or slightly
declining turnover in the domestic market for the future.
At the peak
of the economic and financial crisis in 2012, the German mining
technology sector was experiencing a strong economic tailwind.
While virtually all other industrial sectors recorded heavy losses, the
German mining equipment sector achieved an all-time record turnover of
EUR 6.2 billion. One major reason were the long lead times, with one to
two years passing between order receipt and delivery, and thus receipt
of payment. Economic factors thus made their mark on manufacturers’
balance sheets with a considerable delay. The impact of global
developments was felt only one year later. Since then, turnover declined
by more than 50% to EUR 2.7 billion in the previous year.
However,
this downturn now seems to have bottomed out. The significant increase
in incoming orders of 17% in the first months of 2018 is considered to
be a clear sign of economic recovery in this sector, as is the increase
in turnover of 10% recorded in the same period.
According to
VDMA, the overall increase in demand is almost exclusively due to
replacements and investments the global mining industry undertakes to
optimise efficiency and costs, and to increase safety in the mines.
“This is what drives our business,” says Stöckmann. Exploration projects
concerning new raw material deposits are few and far between at the
moment. In fact, mine operators in some parts of the world are still
devoting much of their time to reducing the excess capacities created
prior to the economic and financial crisis.
The VDMA is
currently working on developing a technology roadmap for member
companies to provide a guideline for the future. The roadmap is intended
to provide comprehensive information on the technical challenges and
requirements the sector will be facing in the next 10 to 15 years. “This
is an ongoing process,” says Stöckmann. “We are currently in the midst
of discussions.” In addition, the roadmap is intended to highlight
potential areas of cooperation between member companies and
universities. And the first step has already been taken. Together with
RWTH Aachen University, the VDMA is planning an event under the motto
“High-performance mining,”
which is to be held on December 4 and 5, 2018. This event is designed
to assist mining equipment manufacturers in identifying and addressing
market demands early on.